goldman sachs trims growth outlook

see also: Latency Budget · Platform Risk

Goldman Sachs cut its U.S. growth forecast to 0.6% for 2023 due to sticky inflation and consumer caution, warning that corporate margins will come under pressure (Reuters).

scene cut

The note cited slower capex and hiring freezes in tech, alongside the Fed’s data-dependent pause, as reasons to dial back expectations.

signal braid

• This ties to fed holds and signals pause watch because growth confidence is now tied to rate persistence.
• Margin pressures echo the risk story in gpt risk stories drive market narratives as investors price in smaller earnings beats.
• Tight credit conditions from fed bank lending survey shows tightening make the revised forecast believable.

my take

I now expect moderate GDP prints, which means the Fed can stay on hold longer but leave markets jittery.

linkage

linkage tree

• tags
  • #finance
  • #2023
  • #market-news
• related
  • [[fed holds and signals pause watch]]
  • [[fed bank lending survey shows tightening]]
  • [[ai risk stories drive market narratives]]

ending questions

Will corporate margins prove resilient enough to justify bullish multiples, or are we still in re-rating?